CASE STUDY · NQ FUTURES · JAN–FEB 2026
I Analyzed 189 NQ Futures Trades and Found 6 Behavioral Patterns Costing $4,300+
This is a real trade set from a Tradovate account: 189 closed trades, January through February 2026, across 6 instruments including NQ, MNQ, and micro gold. The system is profitable — Profit Factor 1.43 proves it. But 6 behavioral patterns cost this trader $4,300 in preventable losses during the same period. Here is what the data shows.
THE SETUP — ACCOUNT OVERVIEW
KPI Overview: The Numbers Before Pattern Analysis
Total Trades
189
Win Rate
51.85%
Profit Factor
1.43
Expectancy
+$41.62
Risk Score
67 / 100
Edge Score
61 / 100
Gross P&L
+$7,987.23
Total Fees
-$1,124.26
Net P&L
+$6,862.97
Max Drawdown
-$4,203
Avg Win
+$178.40
Avg Loss
-$141.60
Read this table carefully. A Profit Factor of 1.43 is real edge — the strategy works. A Risk Score of 67/100 means behavioral patterns are significantly eroding that edge. An Edge Score of 61/100 means the strategy is reliable but not optimized. The max drawdown of $4,203 on a net P&L of $6,862 means behavioral patterns nearly halved this trader's equity curve during the period. This is the pattern we see in most profitable-but-struggling traders: real edge, real behavioral cost.
Instruments Traded
| INSTRUMENT | TYPE | TRADES | WIN RATE | NET P&L | VERDICT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NQH6 | NQ Full | 87 | 54.0% | +$5,241 | edge |
| MNQH6 | NQ Micro | 63 | 50.8% | +$1,118 | marginal |
| MGCJ6 | Gold Micro | 18 | 44.4% | -$214 | no-edge |
| MGCG6 | Gold Micro (Feb) | 11 | 45.5% | -$89 | no-edge |
| MESH6 | ES Micro | 7 | 57.1% | +$193 | edge |
| GCJ6 | Gold Full | 3 | 33.3% | +$614 | marginal |
Notable finding: the micro gold contracts (MGCJ6, MGCG6) show no statistical edge — 29 trades for a combined net loss of -$303. The full-size NQ (NQH6) carries the account with $5,241 net P&L from 87 trades. If this trader stopped trading micro gold and focused exclusively on NQ instruments, the Profit Factor would improve materially.
THE PATTERNS — $4,300 IN PREVENTABLE LOSSES
The 6 Behavioral Patterns Found
Each pattern was detected using timestamp-level analysis. The dollar cost per pattern is calculated from the actual trades attributed to each pattern event — not estimates.
TOTAL PREVENTABLE LOSS — 6 PATTERNS
-$4,300
% OF ACTUAL NET P&L
62.7%
THE VERDICT
This Is a Profitable System. Behavioral Patterns Are the Problem.
A Profit Factor of 1.43 and a positive expectancy of $41.62 per trade are not flukes. They are evidence of a real statistical edge — a trading approach that, when executed cleanly, produces consistent positive expectancy across a meaningful sample size of 189 trades. This trader does not need a new strategy. They need to stop the 6 behavioral patterns that are costing them $4,300 in a two-month period.
The maximum drawdown of $4,203 on a net P&L of $6,862 is the clearest indicator of behavioral interference. A strategy with genuine edge and clean execution should not produce a drawdown that is 61% of its net P&L in the same period. The drawdown is not coming from losing trades that are a natural part of any strategy — it is coming from the 6 identified behavioral events that converted normal losing trades into sequences of accelerating losses.
The path forward for this trader is not strategy optimization — it is behavioral elimination. Six specific rules, each targeting one pattern, would have preserved approximately $3,000 to $3,800 of the $4,300 in pattern costs based on the controllability assessment:
Open Window Risk
No entries before 9:30am ET
Estimated savings: ~$805
Revenge Trading
15-minute pause after large losses
Estimated savings: ~$650
Contract Escalation
Never increase size after a loss
Estimated savings: ~$612
Session Continuation
Walk-away at 1.5x avg daily loss
Estimated savings: ~$511
Held Losers
Hard stops on every entry
Estimated savings: ~$600
Micro Overtrading
Max 8 trades per session
Estimated savings: ~$400
GET YOUR OWN ANALYSIS
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is this a real trader's data or synthetic data?
This case study is based on real trade data from a Tradovate account, with personally identifying information removed. The instrument set (NQH6, MGCJ6, MNQH6, MGCG6, MESH6, GCJ6), date range (January–February 2026), and all P&L figures are accurate to the actual trade records. The patterns detected, their occurrence counts, and their dollar costs are computed directly from the timestamp and P&L data using Edge Forensics' detection engine.
How is a Profit Factor of 1.43 still losing money to behavioral patterns?
Profit Factor of 1.43 means gross profit is 1.43x gross loss — a genuine positive statistical edge. The behavioral patterns do not eliminate the edge; they reduce it. Without the 6 detected patterns, the net P&L would have been approximately $6,862 + $4,300 = $11,163 instead of $6,862. The behavioral patterns cost this trader 38% of their potential net P&L — not their entire edge. This is the typical finding: most losing-month traders have a workable strategy that behavioral patterns are eroding, not destroying completely.
What instruments were traded in this analysis?
The 189 trades span 6 instruments: NQH6 (NASDAQ-100 E-mini March 2026, full size), MNQH6 (micro NQ March 2026), MGCJ6 and MGCG6 (micro gold April and February 2026), MESH6 (micro S&P 500 March 2026), and GCJ6 (gold full size April 2026). The majority of trade count and P&L impact came from NQH6 and MNQH6 positions.
Which of the 6 patterns was the most expensive?
Held Losers was the single most expensive pattern at -$891, followed by Revenge Trading at -$847. However, Open Window Risk is arguably the most actionable because the fix — simply not trading before 9:30am ET — requires zero change to trading skill and zero emotional discipline during market hours. It is a schedule decision, not a behavior change in real-time.
Could this trader have prevented all $4,300 in pattern costs?
Realistically, 70–80% of the cost is preventable with hard rules. Open Window Risk ($805) is 90%+ preventable with a pre-market session start rule. Contract Escalation ($612) is fully preventable with a hard size rule. Session Continuation ($511) is largely preventable with a walk-away rule. Revenge Trading ($847) and Held Losers ($891) require real-time behavioral discipline — harder to achieve but achievable with a 15-minute pause protocol and hard stops respectively. Micro Overtrading ($634) is preventable with a daily trade count limit.
What does a Risk Score of 67/100 mean?
The Risk Score measures aggregate behavioral risk in the trading — higher means more destructive patterns active with greater frequency. A score of 67 indicates significant behavioral risk: multiple active critical patterns, a win rate near the marginal zone (51.85%), and a max drawdown ($4,203) that is large relative to the net P&L ($6,862). A score below 40 would indicate well-controlled behavior. A score of 67 puts this trader in the "behavioral intervention required" zone. The goal is to reduce this score on the next upload by implementing the fixes.
How is the $4,300 total preventable loss calculated?
Each pattern's cost is calculated by isolating the trades that belong to each pattern event and summing their P&L impact. For Open Window Risk, this is the net P&L of all trades entered before 9:30am ET. For Revenge Trading, it is the sum of all trades in confirmed revenge sequences minus the triggering loss (which is not counted as a revenge cost — only the subsequent trades are). For Contract Escalation, it is the incremental loss from size increase (actual loss minus what the loss would have been at standard size). The figures do not overlap — each trade is attributed to at most one pattern.
Can I get a similar analysis for my own trades?
Yes. Upload your Tradovate or NinjaTrader CSV to Edge Forensics. The same detection engine that produced this case study analysis runs on your data — detecting all 8 behavioral patterns with timestamps, cost calculations, and fixes. Your first report is free and takes 60–90 seconds. The report shows your Risk Score, Edge Score, all detected patterns with evidence, and your top recommendations ranked by potential P&L impact.